Kanghong Pharmaceutical (002773) Company Research: 100 Billion Market Spirit, Compaq’s Swordsman (Research on Innovative Drugs Series 4)
Looking at China: The four major indications have created a market space of over 600 billion for Compaq Sip, and sales are expected to reach over 8 billion.
The total indications of Compaq’s four indications are about 21.4 million people, about twice as much as disclosed in the 2015 prospectus. The market is expanding rapidly, and the compensation is based on a single annual medication amount of 30,000 yuan. The theoretical market space is over 600 billion.
If you conservatively consider the expected situation, follow 3.
2% of the patients received VEGF drug treatment, and the percentage of Compaqap City was 50%. The annual amount of single drug consumption increased by 15,000 yuan, and the sales of Compaqap in China alone were expected to exceed 8 billion.
With the entry of Compaqip into medical insurance, as well as the aging of the population and the continuous increase in the myopia population, it is expected that Compaqip will continue to maintain rapid volume.
Look at the pattern: Comparix has obvious advantages in benchmarking imported drugs, and a few players have divided up huge market space.
Current anti-VEGF drugs for the treatment of ocular diseases include ranibizumab, aflibercept, compaqip, bevacizumab, and tubular gathanib.
The fundus vascular disease drug market in domestic sample hospitals is almost divided by ranibizumab and compaqip.
Compaq is a full-body monoclonal antibody, with no immune response, half-life onset, higher binding efficiency, higher safety, better patient compliance, and the cheapest price. In 2017, the accelerated volume of negotiating medical insurance has obvious advantages.
Looking overseas: Directly through III clinical, sales are expected to reach 2 in advance.
6 billion dollars.
Compaq is the first domestic biopharmaceutical that has direct access to the US Phase III clinical trials.
USD 300 million cooperation with American CRO company to accelerate clinical and listing applications, and is expected to be approved for listing in 2022.
At present, the number of wAMD patients in the United States is estimated to be about 1.2 million, and it is expected to reach 1.5 million by 2020. The market space is broad. After Compaq’s listing, it is expected to replace the 5% market share and gradually expand the sales scale.
天津夜网6 billion dollars.
Looking to the future: The layout of the anti-VEGF platform is expected to produce a linkage acceleration effect.
The success of bevacizumab to ranibizumab and aflibercept to Zaltrap has revealed that VEGF antibodies have great potential for indication expansion.
Kang Hong has extended the ophthalmic indications from the fundus to the ocular surface, and the layout of KH906 has entered the phase I clinical stage.
In the field of oncology, KH903 has entered the phase II clinical stage.
Looking at the inventory: The non-biopharmaceutical sector has grown steadily, providing stable cash flow for the company.
The company’s non-biopharmaceutical plate variety is comprehensive. Currently, a total of 12 varieties are on the market. According to the 2014 annual report data, six major varieties have exceeded 100 million yuan in annual expenditure.
It is expected that after the end of the company’s marketing line reform, a comprehensive layout will be adopted, and the revenue of the non-biological medicine segment can maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5-10%.
Profit forecast and estimation.
According to the segment estimation method, we believe that the reasonable market value in 2020 is about 41 billion, and there is still room for up to 9 billion.
We believe that the company’s Compaq Sip will continue to maintain rapid volume in 2019-2021, chemical drugs and Chinese medicines continue to provide stable cash flow, and EPS grows rapidly; the adjustment of the non-biological medicine sector in the second half of 2019 has been completed, and it has slowly resumed positive growth.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 8 respectively.
6.6 billion, 9.
3.3 billion, 10.
76 trillion, corresponding to a growth rate of 24.
4%, EPS is 0.
99 yuan, 1.
07 yuan, 1.
23 yuan, corresponding PE is 38X, 35X, 30X.
Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: Compaqop’s volume is less than expected risk; Compaq’s risk of clinical failure in the United States; non-biological drug sector adjustment speed exceeds expected risk; research on the risk of failure of new drug development.