[Porcine liver mixed with onions]_Scallion_How to make

銆 愭 磱 钱 discerns the mother  劆 銆 慦 鍦 凕 __picks and pans?
鐚倽鏄父瑙佺殑涓€绉嶇尓鐨勫唴鑴忥紝鐚倽鍛抽亾椴滅編锛岃惀鍏讳环鍊间篃闈炲父鐨勪笉閿欙紝鐚倽鐨勫仛娉曚篃鏄瘮杈冨鐨勶紝姣斿璇村彲浠ュ仛鎴愭磱钁辨媽鐚倽锛岃繖鏄竴绉嶅噳鎷岃彍锛屽姞鍏ユ磱钁变細浣垮懗閬撴洿鍔犵殑椴滅編锛屽仛娉曚篃闈炲父鐨勭畝鍗曪紝骞虫椂鍚冧竴浜涚尓鑲濇湁寰堝ソ鐨勮ˉ琛€鐨勪綔鐢紝鏄竴绉嶈ˉ閾佺鍣紝鎴戜滑鏉ヤ簡瑙d竴涓嬪噳鎷岀尓鑲濈殑鍋氭硶銆?娲嬭懕鎷岀尓鑲濇潗鏂欙細娲嬭懕銆佺尓鑲濄€佹鐗╂补銆佺洂銆佽儭妞掔矇銆侀閱嬨€佸懗鏋侀矞銆佽懕鑺Bian Ling?. 鐓ソ鐨勭尓鑲濆垏鐗囥€?. 嬲 嬭 懕 鍒 嬦 笣 銆?. 涓€绌虹閲屾斁鍏ヤ袱灏忓嫼鐩愶紝鍗婃堡鍖欓閱嬶紝鍗婃堡鍖欏懗鏋侀矞锛屼竴灏忓嫼鑳℃绮夛紝钁辫姳銆?. 閿呭唴鐑补锛屽皢鐑у紑鐨勬补娴囧湪绌虹璋冩枡閲屻€?. What’s the difference between the real world and the real world? Do you think it’s going to change? Do you think it’s going to change? Do you think it’s going to change?鐚倽鐨勮惀鍏讳环鍊肩尓鑲濋噷闈㈠惈鏈変赴瀵岀殑閾併€佺淮鐢熺礌A銆佺淮鐢熺礌B2銆佺淮鐢熺礌B3銆侀攲绛夎惀鍏荤墿璐紝涓旂浉姣旂尓鑲夈€佺墰鑲夈€侀浮铔嬨€佺墰濂躲€佽タ钃濊姳鍜岃儭钀濆崪绛夊悓绫婚珮This is the best way to do it. It ‘s very easy to read it. It ‘s very easy to read it. It ‘s very easy to read it. It ‘s very difficult to read it.棰嗗厛銆傛垜浠煡阆撶尓’滆ˉ閾佺鍣ㄢ€濓紝鍦ㄩ搧鍚噺涓婃瘡100鍏嬬尓鑲濆惈閾侀噺杈惧埌浜?2.6銕庯紝澶х害鏄尓鑲夌殑20鍊嶃€佺墰鑲夌殑7鍊嶃€侀浮铔嬬殑10鍊嶏紝涔熸鍥犱负濡傛锛屼竴鑸湪缁欏┐鍎挎坊鍔犺緟椋熸椂锛岀尓鑲濋兘鏄闃插瀛愮己閾佹€ц传琛€鐨勯閫夐鐗┿€傜尓鑲濋鐢ㄦ敞鎰忎簨椤?1)涓嶈兘涓€娆″悆澶锛氭垚浜烘瘡澶╃殑鐚倽鎽勫叆閲忛渶瑕佹帶鍒跺湪50鍏嬩互鍐咃紝濠村辜鍎块渶鎺 у 埗 鍦?鍏嬩互鍐呫€?2) Do you know how to plug in? If you ca n’t do it, you wo n’t be able to read it, and you will be able to read it, and you will be able to break it down. You will be able to do it if you want to do it.鍓嶈涓嶆柇鍦扮敤娓呮按娴告场锛屼竴鏈夎姘村氨鎹㈡按锛屾渶濂介噷闈㈠姞涓€鐗囨煚妾紝鐩村埌娌℃湁琛€姘存蹈鍑轰负姝€傜劧鍚庢斁鍏ュ紑姘翠腑鐓?鍒嗛挓锛岀洿鍒板畬鍏ㄦ病鏈夎涓濄€?3)鐚倽瑕佺啛閫忥細鐑х叜鐚倽鏃讹紝涓€瀹氳鐔熼€忎簡鍙樻垚鐏拌鑹叉墠鍚冿紝浠ラ槻姝㈠悆杩涙湁瀹崇梾鑿屻€?

[Mangosteen eats a few times a day]_Mangosteen_How to eat_How to eat

[Mangosteen eats a few times a day]_Mangosteen_How to eat_How to eat

The mangosteen looks lovely and has won the favor of many people. Its sweet and fragrant flavor makes it unforgettable for a long time.

Although mangosteen is a very popular tropical fruit, because mangosteen is a cold fruit, you cannot eat more or it is prone to other physical problems. So, how many mangosteens do you eat a day at most?

Here’s a brief introduction.

But eat 3 feet per day.

1. Although most people can eat mangosteen.

However, because mangosteen has a high sugar content, those who exceed it should eat less, and those with diabetes should avoid it.

It also contains higher potassium, so people with kidney disease and heart disease should eat less.

2. Mangosteen is cold, and those with debilitating constitution can eat less but not more.

Do not eat with watermelon, soy milk, beer, cabbage, mustard, bitter gourd, winter melon lotus leaf soup and other cold foods. If you accidentally eat too much, you can use brown sugar to make ginger tea.

3, Mangosteen is relatively cold, and has antipyretic and cooling effects. It can dissolve feces, moisturize and reduce fire. If the skin is sore, young acne can be eaten raw, and mangosteen can be used for soup.

One king and one queen, one hot and one cold, after eating Dabu’s durian, eating mangosteen has the effect of clearing heat.

Therefore, mangosteen should not be eaten with some cold food.

4. Mangosteen phospholipid fiber will absorb water and swell in the gastrointestinal tract. Excessive consumption will cause constipation.

In addition, mangosteen is a cold fruit, so those with a debilitating constitution should eat less and not eat more. Do not eat with cold foods such as watermelon, soybean milk, beer, cabbage, mustard, bitter gourd, winter melon lotus leaf soup, etc.Be cautious of overdose, and use brown sugar to cook ginger tea.
Because mangosteen is the queen of fruit, it is the coldest fruit.

Jinjiang Hotel (600754) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: New Store Opening and Mid-end Maintain Strong Trend

Jinjiang Hotel (600754) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: New Store Opening and Mid-end Maintain Strong Trend
Key Investment Events: Company Announcement: 2019Q1-Q3 achieved revenue 112.82 ppm, a 10-year increase2.97%, of which, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 growth rate is 2 respectively.66% / 3.18% / 3.04%; net profit attributable to mother 8.73 ppm, a ten-year increase of zero.15%; net profit of 80,000 yuan deducted from non-attributed 深圳桑拿网 mothers, an annual increase of 18.08%, of which, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 growth rate is 2 respectively.45% / 16.58% / 22.09%; operating net cash flow of 160,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.59%, EPS is 0.91 yuan / share. Comments: Vienna / Platinum’s strong new store openings led to continued outstanding performance. The catering business contributed steady growth performance. With the continuous decline of Cheng Yilong, etc., the investment income continued to decrease, the operating efficiency increased, and financial expenses decreased.Reporting intelligence, the company achieved revenue of 112.82 ppm / + 2.97% of the limited service hotel business realized 110 revenue.94 ppm / + 2.92%, of which 80 realized income in mainland China.2.6 billion / + 4.27% (upfront service fee income / +20.13% income from continuing franchise 北京男士spa会所 fees / +11.45%, accounting for 72.34%), income from mainland China 30.68 ppm / -0.43%, income from food and catering business1.88 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.32%; 19Q3 hotel series data: in terms of revenue, Platinum Tao +2.16% / Vienna +20.75% / Jinjiang Star-16.73% / Louvre +2.01% / Louvre Asia-22.23% / fashion journey +0.73%; In terms of net profit attributable to mothers, Platinum Tao (excluding the expected increase in fair value changes of Tongyi Yilong) +10.71% / Vienna +66.54% / Jinjiang Star-10.61% / Louvre +6.74% / Louvre Asia-12.57% / fashion journey-10.2%. Gross profit margin increased in 19Q3, and sales and financial expense ratio continued to improve.The company’s overall gross profit margin improved significantly in 19Q3, which is expected to be related to the increase in franchise income, and the gross profit margin will increase by 0.68pct, the increase in labor costs and the increase in research and development expenses, the management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) continued to rise 19Q3 rose 0.At 64pct, the decrease in revenue and sales management expenses decreased by 0.34pct and 0.95 points. Newly opened stores and contracted stores have accelerated significantly, mid-to-high-end brands have continued to develop their strength, and major brands have performed well.The report totaled 1,107 newly opened hotels (841 in the same period last year), 389 opened and withdrawn hotels, and a net increase of 718 hotels (499 in the same period last year). Of these, 21 directly operated hotels decreased and 739 franchised hotels increased.The number of models decreased by 37, and the number of mid- to high-end increased by 755. Until the end of 19Q3, there were 991 directly-operated stores with 112,936 rooms and a proportion of 13.89%, down 1 from the beginning of the year.86pct, 3,218 mid-range hotels, 389,772 rooms, accounting for 47 rooms.93%, an increase of 6 earlier.57pct; 4,229 stores have not been opened (457,055 rooms), setting a new historical high. It is expected that over 80% of these locations will be mid-to-high-end, which will provide protection for new stores in the future;/ 喆 brown / Greek bank 112/52/60 respectively) and Vienna (392) of mid-end brands continued to open stores quickly. In 19Q2, the overall operating data in China continued to decline, and the improvement in the occupancy rate narrowed. The number of overseas hotels increased substantially, and Q2 improved.; The overall RevPAR of domestic hotels 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3 increased by 1.15% / 0.26% /-1.49% (ADR increased by 7.28% / 4.94% / 3.73%, OCC bid 4 respectively.27 points / 3.55 points / 4.16pct); from the same-store data, the decline rate of the 19Q3 time growth rate intensified in the first half of the month. The same-store ADR growth rate in 19Q3 remained positive but the growth rate continued to decline.The expansion of OCC and ADR’s downward impact on the same store RevPAR accelerated the decline, the overall same store RevPAR decline slightly intensified compared with the first half, better than peers; overseas hotels, the overall average growth, 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3RevPAR increased respectively.06% / 4.46%, of which ADR increased by 1.86% / 2.13% / 1.61%, OCC increased by -0 respectively.47 points.53pct / 0.35 points. Profit forecast and investment rating: Benefit from strong new store openings and the rapid increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end rooms. The company’s 19Q3 operating data and performance are outstanding and better than its peers. The company’s store size, mid-to-high-end space proportion, and brand and geographical distributionSignificant advantages; Adopt the construction of “one center, three platforms”, optimize resource allocation, promote deep integration, and steadily advance internal integration. In addition, the cash flow continues to be repaid and financial expenses are reduced. Reporting expenses and expenses have improved, and profitability has improved.We slightly raised our profit forecast for 19-21, and we expect EPS for 19-21 to be 1.25/1.43/1.69 yuan, PE corresponding to the closing price on October 30, 19 was 17/15/13 times, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”. Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth rate, store expansion and revpar growth rate are less than expected, management improvement and internal integration progress are less than expected, goodwill impairment loss, state-owned enterprise reform progress is less than expected, shareholders reduce risk of holding, etc.

Ren Zeping: Population crisis is gradually approaching, and it is imperative to fully liberalize

Ren Zeping: Population crisis is gradually approaching, and it is imperative to fully liberalize

China Population Report: 2019 Source: Zeping Macrotext: Evergrande Research Institute Ren Zeping Xiong Chai Zhou Zhe The guide is the basic element and driving force of economic and social development.

Due to the long-term implementation of the family planning policy, China’s population crisis is approaching, and the economic and social problems it brings are becoming increasingly serious.

In recent years, the number of births has decreased, and the growth has increased significantly. The size of women of childbearing age has reached a peak decline, and the aging of the population has accelerated. In 2018, the total number of births decreased by 15.23 million. The comprehensive two-child policy was less than expected.The accumulation effect has subsided.

The number of births in 2018 was 15.23 million, a sharp drop of 2 million compared to 2017, a record low since 1949, except during the natural disaster period of 1960-1961.

The birth rate returned to 10 in 2018.

94 ‰, the lowest since 1949; the total birth rate replaces 1.

52, the average fertility of a woman of childbearing age is 1.

52 children.

Since the implementation of the “Comprehensive Two-Child”
policy in 2016, the number of births has climbed to 17.86 million in 2016, and then for two consecutive years, the effect of the policy has clearly faded.

  We elites should immediately liberalize and encourage new students, so that more people want to live and dare to live.

  Abstract China’s 70-year cultivation policy and its evolution: the population crisis has intensified.

1) Evolution of fertility policy: from family autonomy to government planning, from encouragement to strict control to relaxation.

Since 1949, the fertility policy has undergone four stages of change: First, the fertility stage was encouraged from 1949 to 1953: restricting birth control and induced abortion.

The second is the loose family planning stage from 1954 to 1977: from birth control to the “late scarcity” policy.

The third is the strict family planning stage from 1978 to 2013: the one-child policy, the “one child and a half” policy, and the “double-child and two-child” policy.

The fourth is to relax the family planning stage from 2014 to the present: from “two children alone” to “full two children”.

2) Evolution of fertility: The fertility rate has become sluggish, the comprehensive second child effect has subsided, and the birth population is about to increase.

Three rounds of baby booms have occurred in China since 1949, and the total birth rate changed from about 6 before the 1970s, about 2 in 1990, to 1 after 2010.

.

Around 5, the fourth round of baby boom occurred due to long-term strict family planning.

The comprehensive two-child policy in 2016 was worse than expected, and the birth accumulation effect has subsided. The proportion of births in 2018 decreased by 15.23 million, a decrease of 2 million or 12% compared with 2017.

The scale of women of child-bearing age has peaked. By 2030, the main women of child-bearing age will be 29% smaller than in 2018. Among them, women at the peak of childbearing age of 25-30 will decrease by 41%. The birth population is about to expand.About 11 million, a 26% decrease from 2018.

China’s birth rate has fallen at an unprecedented rate, and currently surpasses well below 2.

The global average of 45 is still below 1.

67 overall level.

3) The impact of low birth rate: the labor force is shrinking, the aging is accelerating, the population is about to peak, the demographic dividend is disappearing, and the problem of remaining men is serious.

From the perspective of labor force, the working-age population of 15-64 years old reached the standard in 2010, the demographic dividend disappeared, and China “became old before getting rich.” It is expected that the working population of 15-64 years old in 2050 will decrease significantly by 24% compared with 2018.

From the perspective of aging, the median age of the Chinese population rose rapidly from 22 years in 1980 to 37 years in 2015, and is expected to rise to 43 years in 2030; the proportion of China’s elderly resettled from 2018 to 2050 and quickly rose to 30%, Every 3 at that time.

One of the three Chinese will be an elderly person over 65 years old, and the burden of pensions will increase, and some provinces such as Heilongjiang have failed to make ends meet.

From the perspective of the total population, China’s population will peak around 2024-2031. The specific time will determine the strength of the policy of encouraging development in the future. From 2015 to 2100, China’s population will account for the global proportion or replace 7% from 19%.

Judging from the problem of remaining males, the sex ratio of the birth population began to become unbalanced gradually, especially during the period of 1990-2010.

The problem of “leftover men” has become increasingly prominent, exceeding 20 million in 2015, or about 40 million by 2040.

In addition, millions of families have lost their independence.

  Why not give birth?

-Reconstruction of indigenous infrastructure, fostering cost constraints.

1) Fertility theory: from the decline in mortality to the utilitarian inherent anticipation to cost constraints.

According to the changes in the factors that drive the decline in productivity, human history can be divided into four stages: First, the high-mortality-driven stage, people need to counter high mortality with high productivity to ensure maximum returns, and the total growth rate is more than 6.

The second is the driving stage of declining mortality. Low reproduction rate can also ensure the maximum benefit, and the total reproduction rate is reduced from more than 6 to about 3.

The third is the decline of utilitarian reproduction, people’s reproductive behavior is closer to emotional needs, and it is believed that the quality of children is improved, and the total harvest rate is reduced from 3 to about 2.
Fourth, the cost-constrained low birth rate stage, the total birth rate replaced the replacement level below 2 and gradually exceeded the level.

2) Late marriage, late childbearing, single Dink, infertility and other alternative breeding bases.

The marriage rate in China dropped to a peak in 2013, and the divorce rate continued to rise; the phenomenon of late marriage and late childbearing became increasingly prominent, and the average age of first childbirth from 1990 to 2015 was 24.

1 year old to 26.

At the age of 3, the primary priming age was changed from 20-27 to 22-29.

Due to the marriage market matching problem and bachelorism, the number of “leftover women” has rapidly increased to about 6 million, and the education variable has “leftover” probability variables.

In addition, the Dink family has a rich foundation for the excessive expansion of infertile populations.

3) The direct costs of housing education and medical care, the burden of pensions, and the high opportunity cost suppress obesity behaviors, and “can not afford to afford them.”

Housing prices are rising rapidly, and the ratio of mortgage income to income increased from 17% to 44% in 2004-2017; the cost of education has risen significantly, especially the severe shortage of public kindergartens. From 1997 to 2017, the proportion of Chinese public kindergartens has decreased from 95% to 44%.

Medical expenses continue to rise, with residents’ health care expenditures rising from 1995 to 201722.

4 times.

The burden of old-age support for the “four two one” family structure has squeezed the growth expectation.

The high labor participation rate of women but insufficient protection of employment rights and interests leads to high opportunity costs.

  International experience: How effective is encouragement?

1) OECD experience: What is the most effective way to encourage fertility?

The OECD’s policy system for encouraging growth includes four aspects: guaranteed vacations, economic subsidies, childcare services, and women’s employment support.

Among them, there is a weak correlation between vacation length and reproduction level. The reason is that there is a certain contradiction between extending women’s vacation time and protecting their employment rights.

There is a certain correlation between the proportion of household welfare expenditure and growth level. In 2013, the ratio of household welfare expenditure to GDP in OECD countries averaged about 2.

4%.

The enrollment rate has a certain correlation with the fertility level. The enrollment rate at the age of 0-2 is transformed and the growth level is transformed. The average enrollment at the age of 0-2 in OECD countries is 34.

2%.

The protection of women’s employment rights is related to the fertility level. The smaller the employment gap between men and women, the higher the level.

2) France: Actively promote the balance between family and work, with a total birth rate close to 2.

France started encouraging breeding before World War II, and achieved a work-family balance by perfecting a meticulous subsidy system, slight childcare services and transforming family-friendly businesses. The total birth rate in 2016 reached 1.

96.

In 2013, French household welfare expenditure accounted for 3% of GDP.

7%, ranking third among OECD countries; in 2014, the enrollment rate for children aged 0-2 reached 51.

9%, much higher than the OECD level.

Large French companies join hands to create a family-friendly business transformation, with a gap of less than 10% between men and women in labor participation; conversion, which accounts for about 9% of immigrants, will also play a role in the recovery of French population growth.

3) Japan: Traditional gender division of labor intensifies work and family conflicts, and the total growth rate stays at 1.

Around 4, the population is expected to be grim.

Prior to the 1970s, Japan once controlled population and began to encourage fertility in the 1990s, but the total reproduction rate remained at 1 in 2016.

4, the low birth rate caused the Japanese population to peak in 2008, 2100 will be 53% lower than before, and the ageing degree is the highest in the world.

The reason is that it is good for Japan to miss the best time to adjust its policies.

Second, Japan is weak in encouraging cultivation, with only 1% of household welfare expenditure.

.

5%, the last in the ranking of OECD countries.

Thirdly, the gender division of labor in Japan is more common among males than females, and there is serious sex discrimination in the workplace. More and more Japanese women have given up marriage and childbirth. The lifetime unmarried rate for women over 50 years from 1990 to 2015 has been 4

3% surged to 14.
6%.

  Policy recommendations: Fully liberalize and encourage enrichment immediately.
1) Reducing the abandonment of the population is the concept of burden, more people-oriented, and accelerating the long-term balanced development of the population.

Population is an important support and symbol of a country’s national strength.

People are the basic elements and driving force for development, and all economic and social development is for people.

2) Immediately let go of childbearing and return the right to new birth to the family.

“Immediately” is because the population growth rate is urgent, and is currently in the third wave of the baby boomer population.

Fully liberalized, people who did not want to have children will still not have children, but some people who want to have three children can have children. Don’t worry about some people, and some regions will lead to multiple births and a population increase.

3) Speed up the development and support system.

The first is to implement differentiated individual tax deductions and economic subsidy policies, covering from pregnancy health care to the age of 18 or the end of academic education.

The second is to increase the supply of childcare services, vigorously increase the 0-3 year-old enrollment rate from the current 4% to 40%, and gradually implement substitute care and economic encouragement.

The third is to further improve the protection of women’s employment rights, gradually implement reasonable incentives for enterprises, and accelerate the development of a reasonable and effective sharing mechanism between the state, enterprises, and families to accumulate costs.

The fourth is to strengthen the protection of equal rights for non-married people.

Fifth, increase education and medical expenses, maintain long-term stability of housing prices, and reduce direct costs of support.

  Contents 1 China’s 70-year nurturing policy and situation evolution: the population crisis has intensified1.

1 Birth policy evolution: from family autonomy to government planning, from encouragement to strict control to relaxation.

2 Evolution of fertility: The fertility rate tends to slump, the comprehensive second child effect subsides, and the birth population is about to increase.

3 Impact: The labor force is shrinking, the aging is accelerating, the population is about to peak, the demographic dividend is disappearing, and the problem of remaining men is serious.

-Cultivation of foundation shrinkage and cost constraints2.

1 Fertility theory: From the decline in mortality to the utilitarian inherent anticipation to cost constraints.

2 late marriage and late childbearing, single Dink, infertility, etc. reduce the breeding base 2.

3 The direct costs of housing, education, and medical care are large, the burden of old age is high, and the opportunity cost is high to suppress obesity. 3 International experience: What is the effect of encouragement and cultivation?

  3.

1 OECD experience: What is the most effective way to encourage fertility?

  3.

2 France: Actively promote the balance between family and work, with a combined birth rate close to 2 3.

3 Japan: Traditional gender division of labor intensifies work and family conflicts, and the total growth rate stays at 1.

Around 4, the population is expected to be severe 4 Policy recommendations: Immediately liberalize and encourage fertility4.

1 Abandoning the concept of population is a burden, and more people-oriented, to accelerate the long-term balanced development of the population.

2 The childbearing should be released immediately and fully, and the right of childbearing should be returned to the family.

3 Accelerate the development of the support system for breeding, and vigorously encourage the breeders. 1 The evolution of China’s 70-year breeding policy and situation: the population crisis has intensified.

1Evolving policy development: From family autonomy to government planning, from encouragement to strict control to relaxation, since 1949, China’s breeding policy has gone through four stages: First, the breeding period of encouragement from 1949 to 1953: restricting birth control and abortion.

Mao Zedong proposed in August 1949, “Man is the first precious thing in all things in the world.

Under the leadership of the union, as long as there are people, any human miracle can be created.

In April 1950, the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Health of the Military Commission jointly issued measures to prohibit illegal abortion.

In December 1952, the Ministry of Health issued the Interim Measures on Restricting Birth Control and Induced Abortion.

In January 1953, the Ministry of Health notified the customs to prohibit the import of contraceptive pills and appliances.

  The second is the loose family planning stage from 1954 to 1977: from birth control to the “late scarcity” policy.
The first census in 1953 found that the national population was 6.

2 billion, exceeding government expectations, while the lagging effect of population explosion has gradually realized, and a policy of restrained growth has been gradually proposed.
In March 1955, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CCP) put forward that “controlling births is a major policy issue that affects the lives of the broad masses of people.

In September 1956, Zhou Enlai re-advocated the proposal of “restricted reproduction” at the 8th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
In February 1957, Mao Zedong proposed at the Supreme State Council that “human beings must control themselves and achieve planned growth.”

The Great Leap Forward Movement of 1958 caused the idea of “many people and power” to become mainstream for a time, and Ma Yinchu’s “new population theory”, which proposed controlling population, was criticized.

With the failure of the Great Leap Forward and the impact of natural disasters, China entered a difficult period of three years from 1959 to 1961, and the birth control policy was again proposed.

In December 1962, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the “Instructions on Promoting Family Planning Seriously”, and in January 1966, the Central Committee of the Communist Party issued the “Instructions on Family Planning Issues.”

But then the Cultural Revolution began, and family planning work was impacted.

  In July 1971, the State Council demanded that “the natural height of the population be reduced year by year during the fourth five-year plan, and strive to reduce the city to about 10 ‰ and the rural population to below 15 ‰ in 1975”.

In the “Fourth Five-Year Plan” formulated that year, it was proposed that “there are too many, two are exactly, and three are more.”

In December 1973, the first national family planning work report meeting put forward the policy of “late, rare, and few”.

“Late” means that the male is 25 years old, the female is married after the age of 23, and the female is born after the age of 24; “Rare” means that the genetic interval is more than 3 years; “Less” means that a couple has no more than two children.

  The third is the strict family planning stage from 1978 to 2013: the one-child policy, the “one child and a half” policy, the “dual single child and two child” policy, and family planning was rejected by one vote.

After the reform and opening up began in late 1978, many areas of the economy and society shifted from government planning to market regulation, but the right to growth was further received from the government’s centralized management from the family.

In March 1978, “the state advocated and merged family planning” was first written into the constitution.

In October 1978, the central government explicitly stated that “the number of parents and children of a couple is best to be at most two.”

In February 1980, the Xinhua News Agency released the “100-Year Forecast of the Chinese Population” report, saying that if the growth trend remained the same, the Chinese population would reach 4 billion by 2050, causing shock.

In September 1980, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued an “Open Letter on the Issue of Controlling Population Growth and Caused All Members of the Communist Youth League” to require each couple to have only one child.

Since then, the “one-child policy” that gradually controls the birth rate of a generation has been launched and implemented across the country.

In September 1982, the National Family Planning Policy was written into the report of the Twelfth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and was incorporated into the Constitution in December of the same year, that is, “the country’s gradual family planning to adapt population growth to economic and social development plans.”There is an obligation to implement family planning. ”

In that year, Changde City, Hunan Province took the lead in implementing the “one-vote veto system for family planning,” which was then implemented nationwide.

  Due to the large number of people, in April 1984, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China appropriated to “open small mouths and block large mouths” in some rural areas. The rural areas of 19 provinces across the country gradually adjusted to the “one child and a half policy”, that is, a child born to the first child can have a child.

The “Population and Family Planning Law” passed at the end of 2001 and implemented in September 2002 stipulates that if both parties have only children and have one child, they can have a second child.

The policy of “single and two children” formulated in accordance with the law in various places has been promoted successively. Henan implemented it in 2011, the latest in the country.

According to Cai Yi (2018) of the Academy of Social Sciences, the one-child policy before 2010 covers the whole country35.

9% of the total population, one and a half policy coverage rate 52.

9%, two-child policy covers 9.

6% population, three children and above policy coverage1.

6%.

  The fourth is to relax the family planning stage from 2014 to the present: from “two children alone” to “full two children”.
In 2013, the Ministry of Health and the National Family Planning Commission merged into the National Health and Family Planning Commission. In November of the same year, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee decided to launch the “Second Child” policy.

Due to the poor results, the “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy was promoted in 2016, and the “Population and Family Planning Law” was revised to “the state encourages a couple to have two children”.

In 2018, the National Health and Family Planning Commission will no longer be retained, and the National Health and Health Commission will be established. This is the first time since the establishment of the National Family Planning Commission in 1981 that there is no “family planning” in the constituent departments of the State Council.

  1.2 Evolution of development situation: Growth rate tends to be sluggish, comprehensive two-child effect recedes, and the birth population is about to shift. 1) Three rounds of baby booms have occurred in China since 1949. The total growth rate has changed from about 6 before the 1970s to about 2 in 1990, And again after 2010.

Around 5, the fourth round of baby boomers came on schedule due to long-term strict family planning replacement.

The total birth rate refers to the average number of children per woman in their lifetime, but the omission of the younger population from official data leads to a low estimated total birth rate.

We have revised the total reproduction rate in recent years based on primary school enrollment data and underreporting rates in the education sector.

The first round of baby booms occurred in 1950-1958. Due to the stability of people ‘s lives, economic recovery and improved medical and health conditions after the founding of the People ‘s Republic of China, the average annual birth rate was 21 million, nearly 23 million (1954), and the birth rate was basically 30 ‰Above, the total birth rate averages 5.

3.
During the difficult period of three years from 1959 to 1961, the birth population, birth rate, and total reproduction rate increased gradually.
The second round of baby booms occurred in 1962-1975, with an average annual birth population of 26.28 million, exceeding 30 million (1963).

Among them, there are compensatory reproduction factors after the difficult period of three years, and the impact of family planning work during the Cultural Revolution.
However, under the “late scarcity” policy of the 1970s, the number of births from 1970 to 1977 dropped from 1970 to 17.89 million, the birth rate dropped from 33 ‰ to 19 ‰, and the total reproduction rate dropped from 5.

8 amazing 2.

8, even as low as 2 in 1980.

3.
The third round of baby boom appeared in 1981-1991. The average annual birth rate was 22.6 million, about 25.5 million (1987). The birth rate was between 20 ‰ -23 ‰, and the total reproductive rate was 2 on average.

3.
After that, the birth population gradually replaced about 16 million in 2003, and the official total growth rate replaced 1.

About 4 and about 1 after correction.

6.
The fourth round of baby boomers should appear after 2010, but disappeared due to long-term strict implementation of family planning, and the official total fertility rate recovered in 20101.

18. Only 1 after correction.

5.
  The comprehensive two-child policy was less than expected, and the fostering stacking effect has subsided. The number of births in 2018 decreased by 15.23 million, or about 12%.

The mean of the “two children alone” and “full two children” policies initiated a sluggish growth trend.

After the release of the “two children alone” in 2014, the birth population was 16.87 million, an increase of less than 500,000 compared with 2013.

After the release of the “full two-child” in 2016, the birth population climbed to 17.86 million, a new high since 2000, but 17.23 million in 2017.

Judging from the birth of children, the total growth rate of the two children has increased significantly since 2014. This is mainly due to the concentrated release of the two children who returned after the 75. However, the growth rate of the one child has decreased and the size of women of childbearing age has decreased year by year.Highlight the average.

From 2013 to 2017, the total birth rate of the second child has risen significantly, and the proportion of the second child born has increased from 31.

1% rose to 51.

3%.

However, the overall growth rate of the total birth rate of one child, the proportion of births from 64.

3% accurate to 42.

0%.

The apparent shift in the one-child total birth rate means that some young people are reluctant to have a single child, and without one, there will be no two.

In 2018, the number of Chinese births decreased by 2 million, or 12%, compared to 2017, and the total birth rate decreased by one.

52.
  The scale of women of childbearing age has peaked. The number of women of childbearing age between 20 and 35 years of age will decrease by 29% in 2030 compared with 2018. Among them, women at the peak of childbearing age of 20-35 years will reduce by 41%, and then the population birth fear will increase. It is expected that in 2030It will replace more than 11 million a year, a 26% decrease from 2018.

After adjusting for the underage of the census data, we estimated the situation of women of childbearing age from 1982 to 2030.

The number of women of childbearing age between 15 and 49 years in China in 1982 was two.

5 billion, reaching 3 in 2011.

800 million people are expected to replace 3 in 2018.

5 billion, is expected to replace 3 by 2030.

.

0 billion.

Among them, the main women of childbearing age between 20 and 35 years old were about 1 from 1982.

200 million to 1997.

The average of 900 million will replace nearly 1 by 2018.

600 million, is expected to replace 1 by 2030.
1 billion; women at the age of 25-30 years of age are about 70 million in 2018, and are expected to replace about 41 million by 2030, a decrease of about 41%.

In this context, it is expected that more than 11 million people will be born in 2030.

  2) China’s population growth rate has fallen at an unprecedented rate, and currently exceeds well below 2.
The global average of 45 is still below 1.

67 overall level.

According to UN statistics, the total birth rate in the United States from 1950 to 2015 was 3.

3 decreases by 1.

9, Japan noticed 1 from 3.

4, India from 5.

9 amazing 2.

4. Both are much smaller than China’s total reproduction rate from 6 to 1.

6 decrease.

China’s total cultivation and implantation in 20161.

62, the lowest in the world, at least well below 2.

The global average of 45 is still below 1.

67 high-income economies.

The proportion of countries with similar GDP per capita as Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, and Russia is still low in China.

  1.3 Impact: The labor force is shrinking, the aging is accelerating, the population is about to peak, the demographic dividend is disappearing, and the problem of remaining men is severe.

After the reform and opening up in 1978, China merged huge and young human resources and the huge market related to it, and quickly grew into the world’s second largest economy.

The second round of baby boomers from 1962 to 1975 was the main force in the 40 years of reform and opening up. More production and storage and less consumption led to an increase in the savings rate and investment rate. Savings that exceeded the investment resulted in a trade surplus, while excess liquidity and per capitaIncreasing income levels promote consumption upgrades, and the potential economic growth is higher.

In the context of long-term low birth rates, the proportion and size of China’s working-age population aged 15-64 years peaked in 2010 and 2013, respectively, while the proportions of the working-age population in Japan, the United States, and Britain peaked in 1991, 2009, and 2013,At that time, per capita income was much higher than China.

China’s working-age population retired by about 9 in 2018.

900 million, the number of Chinese employees fell for the first time.

According to current trends, China’s working-age population will decrease by 2050 by 2050.

400 million to 7.

5 billion, or about 24% reduction.

According to the 2010 census data, the post-80s, post-90s, and post-00s populations were 2 respectively.

19 billion, 1.

88 billion, 1.

4.7 billion, post-90s are about 31 million fewer than post-80s, and post-00s are 41 million fewer than post-90s.

As the labor supply continues to shrink, labor costs will increase, and some manufacturing industries have begun to shift to Southeast Asia, India and other places.

From a marginal point of view, China’s demographic dividend has ended and it is facing the situation of “before getting rich before getting old”. In the future, the savings rate and investment rate will gradually decline, the consumption rate will gradually rise, and the potential economic growth rate will decline.

From an absolute level, the current total dependency ratio of China’s population is about 40%, and the future reduction is still in the “population opportunity period” (less than 50%) with relatively light population burden.

  2) The aging of the population is accelerating, and the burden of old-age care is increasing. From 2018 to 2050, the proportion of the elderly in China resets from 12% to 30%.

Aging is a global phenomenon, but China’s aging rate due to family planning is unprecedented.

The median age of the Chinese population from 1970 to 2015 was 19.

3 years old quickly rose to 37.

0 years old, is expected to reach 50 years old by 2050.

From an international perspective, the median age of the United States, Europe, Japan, and India in 2015 was 37.
6, 41.

6, 46.

3, 26.
7 years old, will be 42 by 2050.

0, 46.

6,53.

2. 37.

5 years old.

The transition from an ageing population of 65 years and older to more than 7% of the total population to a deep ageing of over 14% took France 126 years, Britain 46 years, Germany 40 years, and Japan 25 years (1970-1994); from the depthFrom aging to super aging with over 20% of the elderly population, it took 36 years in Germany (1972-2008) and 21 years in Japan (1995-2006).

China’s population aged 65 and over accounted for more than 7% of the population 杭州夜生活网 in 2001 and entered an aging society, accounting for 11 in 2018.

9%, it is expected that in about 22 years, China will enter a deeply aging society around 2023, and 10 years later, around 2033, it will enter a super-aging society, reaching 30 in 2050.

0%, the rate of aging is unprecedented.

Moreover, due to the large population base, the size of the elderly population is also unprecedented.

In 2018, China’s population aged 65 and over has reached nearly 1.

700 million, is expected to reach 3 in 2050.

900 million, every 3 at that time.

One of the three Chinese is an elderly person over 65 years old.

  China will gradually become one of the countries with the largest burden of pensions in the world, which will severely drag the national finances and transform the economic vitality.

From the perspective of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees, China’s gradual balance can be paid from 18 in 2012.

Five months gradually dropped to 13 in 2017.

In 8 months, the pension dependency ratio (number of employees / retirees) decreased by 2.

65.

In 2017, 6 provinces were unable to make ends meet, and 15 provinces had a gradual balance payable time of less than 10 months, and 7 provinces had replaced the pension dependency ratio of less than 2.

Among them, the Heilongjiang Pension Insurance Fund has continued to “make ends meet” since 2013, and the balance gradually turned negative in 2016.

In addition, with the aging population, the pressure on medical expenditure will also increase.

According to the National Health Service Survey, the prevalence (number of patients / survey number) of residents in China’s surveyed areas from two weeks to 2003 was 14 from 2003 to 2013.

3% to 24.

1%; among the population aged 65 and over, the incidence is from 33.

8% to 62.

2%, the prevalence of the elderly population in 2013 was 2 on average.

58 times.

  3) The population is expected to increase. In the long run, the size of China’s population will shrink sharply. From 2015 to 2100, China ‘s population will reset by 19% of the global proportion instead of 7%.

The United Nations has nine prediction plans for the size of China’s population, of which the no-change plan and the fixed growth rate plan assume a replacement for the future total growth rate.

60, which is closer to reality, and will be launched in 2023 and 14 in 2026, respectively.

2 billion, 14.

The highest of 300 million people.

According to our prediction, follow the current 1.

The development trend of the total growth rate of about 5 is that the Chinese population will peak around 2024. After the peak, the internal population will shrink slowly in the first 25-30 years, but it can reach the end of life through the birth population during the period of higher growth rate.After that, the shrinking speed will be significantly faster.

In 2050, the Chinese population will decrease by only 8% compared to 2024. In 2075, the Chinese population will decrease by 21% compared to 2050. In 2100, the Chinese population will decrease by 23% compared to 2075, which will replace about 8 billion.

In 1950, China’s population accounted for 22% of the global population. In 2015, it replaced a small amount of about 19%, and in 2100 it will significantly replace about 7%.
If we further look to 2200, China’s population will replace only about 2 billion, and the proportion of the population in the world may continue to decline.

As the population shrinks sharply, China’s big market advantage will gradually be lost, and its overall national strength will also be affected.

  4) The sex ratio of the birth population has been gradually imbalanced since the 1980s, and the problem of “leftover men” has become increasingly prominent.
After 90s, the gender imbalance between men and women was very serious, and the sex ratio at birth was more than 120.

The sex ratio of China’s birth population in 1982 was 107.

6. In 1990, it exceeded 110, in 2000 it was close to 118, and then it exceeded 120 for a long time. It continued to decline after 2008, and replaced 111 in 2017.

9.
According to the 2010 census data, the gender ratio of men and women after 119 reached 119, and men were nearly 13 million more than women; the gender ratio of men and women after 110 was 110, and men were nearly 9 million more than women.

The post-80s and post-70s unmarried population have sex ratios of 137 and 308, respectively.

The number of unmarried men aged 30 and over in China has exceeded 20 million in 2015, and is expected to exceed 40 million by 2040.

In 1990, China’s unmarried men aged 30 and over only slightly exceeded 10 million; in 2000, it exceeded 16 million; in 2015, it exceeded 20 million.

Judging from the distribution of urban and rural areas, the problem of “leftover men” in rural areas is more serious than in urban areas and formed towns. In 2015, rural men over 30 years old had unmarried births5.

7%, more than 4 in the city.

3% and 3 of the formed towns.

.

6%.

From the perspective of education level, the unmarried rate of men who have not attended school is as high as 15%; the second reason is that the unmarried rate is as high as 9% for men who have studied postgraduate education and entered the marriage market.

With the birth rate of people with high sex ratio since 1990 gradually entering the marriage age, it is expected that the problem of “leftover men” will become more prominent in the future, which may reach about 40 million by 2040.

“Personal intrusion” marriage squeeze issues may evolve into “public issues” of population security issues, including women’s buying and selling, sexual harassment, and sexual crimes.

  5) Millions of families have lost their independence.

The death of the only child may cause the entire family to collapse, and family functions and socialization functions such as support, maintenance, economics, and education will gradually weaken or even disappear.

Relevant research shows that China has now accumulated more than 1 million, and the number of “lost-independent families” increases by 7 every year.

60,000, and there are increasing numbers of “disabled families.”

  2Why not give birth?

-Cultivation of foundation shrinkage and cost constraints2.

1 Growth theory: From the decline in mortality to the decline in driving force, to the cost constraint. According to the changes in factors that drive the decline in speed, human history can be divided into four stages: 1) High mortality-driven stage, people need to compete with high birth ratesHigh mortality, and the total reproduction rate is more than 6.

In the period of agricultural civilization, the direct cost of raising children was very low, there was more leisure time in agricultural production, and the opportunity cost was low.

Moreover, the labor-intensive agricultural production model determines that the expected economic benefits of child-rearing are high. Farmers can only rely on child-raising to prevent old age. Outside the family is also closely related to the prosperity of people.

Poor public health conditions, intensified wars, and other factors have led to mortality rates of as high as 20 ‰ or 30 ‰, which has forced people to counteract high mortality with high reproduction rates.

2) In the driving stage of declining mortality, it is recognized that a low birth rate can also ensure an increase in benefits, and the total growth rate has dropped from more than 6 to about 3.

With the improvement of public health conditions, the advancement of medical technology continues to decline, and humans no longer need to fight high mortality with high reproduction rates, and gradually translate into decline in contraceptive technology.

According to international experience, most of this natural transformation has a time lag of 15-25 years.

From 1950-1970, the mortality rate in China decreased by about 8 ‰ from about 20 ‰, and the total reproductive rate in China from 5970 to 1978.

8 amazing 2.

7.
3) At the stage of fading utilitarian reproduction, people’s reproductive behavior is closer to emotional needs, and the quality of children is improved, and the total harvest rate is reduced from 3 to about 2.

As mortality has been reduced to a minimum, behavioral factors affecting indigenous peoples have turned into issues of benefits.

With the continuous development of the economy and society, the direct cost of child-raising has increased, especially after the education level has generally increased, and the opportunity cost of children who are more involved in employment has increased. In terms of benefits, spiritual benefits and income are basically unrelatedUtilitarian returns have fallen, leading to a decline in the number of intentions to breed.

Moreover, incomes have risen to the increased demand for quality of children.

This gradually caused the family’s reproductive behavior to gradually exceed utilitarianism, approaching the emotional needs of one boy, one girl and two children, and the total growth rate dropped to about 2.
This change in China occurred roughly from 1979 to 1990. In addition to the impact of the family planning policy, it also consisted of industrialization after the reform and opening up, rapid urbanization, the development of township and village enterprises, and a large number of rural people moving into cities to work.

4) In the low birth rate stage with cost constraints, the total growth rate reached below the replacement level 2 and gradually exceeded the level.

In modern society, the increase and decrease in the rate of return is not due to the expected reduction in the number of people, but mainly due to the increase in costs that cause people’s rich expectations to not be fully realized.

The difference between the actual fertility level and the expected fertility level depends on the cost.
  2.

2 Late marriage, late childbearing, single Dink, infertility and other divisional development foundations 1) China’s marriage rate continued to decline after peaking in 2013, and the divorce rate continued to rise; late marriage and late childbirth became increasingly prominent, with an average age of first childbirth from 1990 to 2015.

1 year old to 26.

3 years.

Unlike the United States, where the proportion of children born out of wedlock in Europe is as high as 40% -60%, the proportion of children born out of wedlock in China is less than about 10%. Therefore, the birth problem in China is first of all a marriage problem.

In 2013, the number of marriage registrations in China reached 13.47 million pairs, and then continued to alternate to 10.63 million pairs in 2017, with a crude marriage rate from 9.

9 ‰ 7.

7 ‰.

The number of divorce registrations rose from less than 1 million before 1995 to 4.37 million in 2017, and the crude divorce rate rose to 3.

2‰.

The average first marriage age of men from 1990 to 2010 was 23.

6 years old up to 25.

At 9 years old, the average first marriage age for women is from 22.

0 years old to 23.

9 years old; among them, the average first marriage age of female and male surpassed the age of late marriage in 1996 and 1998 (female 23, male 25).

According to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations (including remarriage) for 20-24 years old from 2005 to 2016 accounted for 47.

0% replaces 24.

2%, 25-29 years old, 30-34 years old, the proportion of marriage registrations over 35 years old respectively from 34.

3%, 9.

9%, 8.

8% increased to 38.

2%, 12.

8%, 24.

8%.

  Late childbirth is also becoming increasingly prominent.

The average age of first childbirth from 1990 to 2015 was 24.

1 year old to 26.

3 years old, average childbearing age (all children) from 24.

8 years old up to 28.

0 years old.
The main primary childbearing age in 1990, the main childbearing age was about 20-27 years old, one child was born, and the number of children was 86.

6%, 74.

9%.

By 2015, the primary primal age is more than 22-29 years old, and the proportion of one child is 66.

7%; the main childbearing age is expected to be 23-30 years old, and the number of inherent children replaces 59.

1%.
In addition, from 1990 to 2015, the number of children born to older women over 30 years old accounted for 4 children.

2% increased to nearly 19.

2%, the number of indigenous children is 14.

0% increased to 32.
3%.

According to the 2015 census data, the average age of one child, two children, three children and above was 26.

3, 29.

6, 32.

At age 0, the number of children born was 72.

0%, 73.

5%, 69.

5%.

  In addition, the number of families choosing Dink is increasing after marriage, especially in multiple developed first- and second-tier cities.

A 2003 survey by the Gender and Culture Research Center of the Shenzhen Academy of Social Sciences showed that Ding ‘s family accounts for about 10% of households in Shenzhen and is on the rise; according to Liu Jiaqiang, deputy secretary general of the CPPCCThe Times published an article that there were 600,000 Dink families in China in 2010, and the trend continues to increase.

  2) Due to the marriage market matching problem and bachelorism, the number of “leftover women” increased rapidly to about 6 million, and the “leftover” probability error appeared again.

In the marriage market, women prefer men who are not inferior to their own conditions, and men prefer women who are not inferior to their own conditions.

This means that even if the gender ratio of men and women in the marriage market is balanced, the best women and the worst men are most likely to be left.

In 1990, there were only 460,000 unmarried women aged 30 and over in China. In 2000, there were more than 1.54 million. In 2015, it rose to 5.9 million. Among them, the unmarried rate for women aged 30-34 went from zero.

6% climbed to 7.

0%.

From the perspective of urban and rural distribution, in 2015, urban women aged 30 and over were replaced by 2 unmarried women.

4%, which is significantly higher than 1 in the formed towns.

0%, 0 in rural areas.

9%.

From the perspective of education level, the unmarried rate of women aged 30 and above with a graduate degree is as high as 11%, which is much higher than the 5% of unmarried rates of women with a bachelor degree or below.

  3) Infertile populations continue to expand their fertility.

Increasing reproductive age, environmental pollution, poor lifestyles, and lack of reproductive health protection have led to an increase in infertility rates.

The best adult age for women is 25-29, and for men 25-35.

Studies have found that the reproductive capacity of a 35-year-old woman is approximately 50% at the age of 25, and then to replace the 50% at the age of 40.

Upside down day and night, sedentary, not exercising, long-term use of electronic products, smoking, drinking alcohol, environmental pollution, high-intensity radiation, etc. will lead to male sperm quality decline.

According to the 2018 Third Hospital Affiliated to Guangdong Medical University 11 basis.

In the study of 30,000 samples, the semen quality of males showed a significant reverse trend from 2005 to 2014.

.
  2.

3 The direct costs of housing, education, and medical care are large, the burden of pensions is high, and the opportunity cost is high. Inhibiting genetic behaviors., Squeezing growth, female labor participation rate is higher, but insufficient protection of employment rights and interests, resulting in high opportunity costs.

  1) Housing prices are rising rapidly, and the pressure on residents ‘debt is rising rapidly. The housing loan income ratio increased from 17% to 44% in 2004-2017.

Since the housing reform in 1998, overall house prices have continued to increase, which has put a lot of pressure on families to raise children and buy homes for their children’s marriage. From 1998 to 2018, the average price of newly-built commercial houses nationwide increased from 1854 yuan / flat to 8542 yuan.

From 2004 to 2017, the balance of China’s personal home purchase loans increased from 1.

6 trillion yuan to 21.

9 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.
7 times, accounting for more than 50% of the balance of household loans, compared to 54% in 2017.

The housing loan income ratio (personal home loan balance / disposable income) increased from 17% to 44%, driving the household sector debt income ratio (resident debt balance / disposable income) from 29% to 80%.

In reality, there are still many residents who collect home purchase funds through consumer loans, credit loans and other forms. The actual ratio of real estate loan income may be higher.

  2) The cost of education has increased significantly, especially the severe shortage of public kindergartens. From 1997 to 2017, the proportion of Chinese public kindergartens enrolled has been replaced from 95% to 44%.
Current education costs mainly include tuition and miscellaneous fees for kindergartens, tuition fees for kindergartens and elementary and junior high schools, college tuition and living expenses.

According to Sina Education’s “2017 Chinese Family Education Consumption Newspaper” sample statistics, pre-school education expenditure accounts for 26% of annual household income, compulsory education and high school education accounts for 21%, and college education accounts for 29%.

The supply of public kindergartens has fallen sharply, and many families have been forced to choose expensive private kindergartens, which is an important reason for the high cost of preschool education.

In 1997, the number of public kindergartens accounted for 86.

5%, 94 people in the park.

6%.

Since 2001, kindergartens have been promoted to a large number of social schools, coupled with a large number of primary and secondary schools retreating and schooling, especially in rural areas, leading to a decrease of 4, 1 in rural, county and urban kindergartens.

5, 0.

90,000.

The number of kindergartens nationwide from 2001 to 2017 was 11.

20 thousand to 25.

50,000, the number of public kindergartens from 6.

70,000 reductions to 4 in 2010.

80,000, then rose to 9 in 2017.

50,000, accounting for 60.

1% is about 30.

7% went back up to 37.

1%; but the proportion of public kindergartens in the kindergarten has not risen, from 83.

1% continued to decrease 44.

1%.

The proportion of public kindergartens in cities, counties, and rural areas was 75 respectively.

5%, 74.

8%, 90.

6% fell to 35 in 2016.

7%, 33.

4%, 57.

7%.

In addition, parents of dual-workers currently face difficulties in picking up and transferring children in primary and secondary schools.

In a few places, parents must even review student homework and explain wrong and wrong questions, which gradually evolved into “homework evolved into parent homework” and “teachers reduce burdens and parents increase burdens.”

  3) Medical expenses continued to rise, and residents’ health care expenditure increased from 1995 to 201722.

4 times, far more than disposable income9.

A two-fold increase.

Due to environmental pollution, increased pressure on work and life, and the aging of the population, the prevalence rate has risen, and medical costs have continued to rise, affecting family fertility decisions.

From 2004 to 2017, the average number of visits by Chinese residents to medical institutions from 3 to 3.

07 trips rose to 5.

88 people, hospitalization rate from 5.
1% rose to 17.

6%.

According to the 2017 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Health Care Undertakings, the average outpatient cost of public tertiary hospitals is 306 yuan, the per capita hospitalization fee is 13,088 yuan, and the average daily hospitalization fee is 1,334 yuan.

Affected by this, from 1995 to 2017, the per capita health care expenditure of residents nationwide rose from 62 yuan to 1,451 yuan, an increase of 22.
4 times, much higher than the fatal disposable income of human beings9.

2 times the per capita consumption expenditure8.

A four-fold increase; its share of consumer spending rose from 3.

2% rose to 7.

9% of which cities from 3.

1% rose to 7.

3% in rural areas from 3.

2% rose to 9.

7%.

  4) The one-child couple “four two one” family structure has a heavy burden of supporting the elderly, squeezing metabolic intentions.

The post-80s generation and the post-90s generation with only children face a family structure of “four two one”, that is, four elderly people, a couple, and a child.

According to Wang Guangzhou (2013), a demographer of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the number of only children in China in 2010 was about one.

45 billion, and under the existing fertility policy, it will increase by more than about 4 million people per year. According to this calculation, the number of only children in 2018 is about 1.

8 billion.

Couples who have only one child on both sides need to support four elderly people. If they have two more children, the pressure on life will be severe, and the burden of old-age care will obviously squeeze the benefits.

If the current population growth rate does not change, after entering the marriage and childbearing age after the 00’s and the life expectancy of the elderly will increase, some families may even face the “August 21” family structure, that is, the elderly, four parents, a couple, and a child.
  5) The high labor participation rate of women but insufficient protection of employment rights and interests leads to a high opportunity cost of childbearing.

According to statistics from the International Labour Organization, the female labor force participation rate (aged 15 and above) in China from 1990 to 2017 was 73.

2% returns 61.

5%, a significant drop of 11.

Seven averages, but still at a high level globally.

Global female labor participation in competition in 201748.

7%, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and India were 55.

7%, 51.

1%, 50.

5%, 27.

2%.

In fact, the gap between the female labor force participation rate and that of men in China from 1990 to 2017 was from 11.

Six were expanded to 14.

Six samples, while the global, American, European Union, and Japanese men and women’s labor force participation rates have shown a narrowing trend.

  3 International experience: How effective is the encouragement?

  3.

1 OECD experience: What is the most effective way to encourage fertility?

  As early as the middle of the 19th century, Britain, Switzerland and other countries began to take measures to protect women’s reproductive rights.

In 1919, the three major variables of “12-week leave, work protection, and income compensation” issued by the International Labour Organization led to the basic provisions of the OECD’s birth policy.

The indigenous support policy frameworks of the countries within the OECD are generally similar, but the focus of the measures is different, and the effect of support is different. The effects can be divided into two categories: represented by France and Sweden. The total growth rate has risen to1.
Countries with more than 8; Second, represented by Germany and Japan, the total reproduction rate stagnates at 1.

4 or so countries.

  OECD countries’ policy systems to encourage growth are often based on the establishment of specialized institutions. The policies mainly include four aspects: guaranteeing vacations, increasing economic subsidies, providing childcare services, and strengthening women’s employment support.

A few countries have established specialized family affairs departments, such as the German Family Affairs, Elderly, Women, and Adolescents, which was established in Germany in 1995; the United Kingdom, which was established in 1997 as a special family policy unit in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
China began to establish a national family planning committee for population control in 1981, changed to the National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, and changed to the National Health and Health Commission in 2018.

The main policies to encourage fertility are as follows: First, legislation guarantees vacations. The OECD redundant countries have set 3-5 months of maternity leave, 6-35 months of parental leave, and the average maternity leave is 4.

At 5 months, the average parental leave is 9.

On average, 2 months of paternity leave is 1 week.

In 2016, 75% of OECD countries have 3-5 months of maternity leave, with an average of 18 weeks. 56% of OECD countries have 6 to 35 months of parental leave, and 12 countries do not have parental leave. The average of OECD countriesFor 37 weeks.

Parental leave is generally used after maternity leave and takes longer.

There are differences in the salary levels that women can enjoy during their vacations. They are uniformly adjusted to 100% of their normal salary for horizontal comparison. The average women’s total vacation time in OECD countries is 30 weeks., Ranked first; Australia and New Zealand were 7 respectively.

6, 7.

7 weeks, countdown.

China stipulates that the maternity leave is 14 weeks, and there is no parental leave. In practice, the maternity leave is generally assumed to be 18-23 weeks, and there is 7-30 days of male paternity leave.

  However, there is a weak correlation between the length of female leave and the rate of reproduction. The reason is that there is a certain contradiction between extending female leave and protecting their employment rights.

Excessive maternity leave may cause discrimination and damage to women in the workplace, increase the threshold of employment, and reduce career advancement opportunities.

For example, the total length of holidays for female adults in Germany is 42.

6 weeks, but the original rate in 2016 was only 1.

50; while the total length of holidays in the UK is 12 weeks, but the sum of breeding replaces 1.

81.

Therefore, guaranteeing women’s vacations must be gradually synchronized with the regulation of the labor market, strengthening the protection of women’s labor rights, and improving the paternity system.

If France has 11 days of male paternity leave, Sweden, France and Germany parents can share parental leave.

Improving the system of fathers’ maternity leave not only encourages husbands and wives to share family responsibilities and baby-raising responsibilities, but also reduces the impact of male sex on fertility issues.

  Second, the release of economic subsidies. The average ratio of household welfare expenditure to GDP in OECD countries in 2013 was about 2.

4%, there is a certain correlation between the proportion of family welfare expenditure and birth level.

In 2013, except for Turkey, the average household welfare expenditure of OECD32 countries accounted for 1% -4% of GDP, with an average of 2.

4%, of which the UK is 4.

0%, the highest proportion, Turkey is 0.

4%, the lowest proportion.

In countries where the proportion of household welfare expenditures is increasing, the level of growth has increased.

For example, the proportion of household welfare expenditure in Iceland is 3.

63% of the total cultivated implants in 20141.

93; and South Korea’s household welfare expenditure accounted for 1.

32%, the total nourishment 1.

twenty one.
In the new tax reform in 2018, China will replace the pre-tax deduction range for education expenses for children aged 3 and over with a fixed amount of 1,000 yuan / child / month.

  Thirdly, a large number of childcare institutions have been established. In 2014, the average age of children aged 0-2 in OECD countries was 34.

2%, the entrainment rate increased and the reproduction level increased.

Most OECD countries support fertility through new government childcare institutions and encouraging the development of non-governmental childcare institutions. In 2014, 85% of the OECD32 countries had a childcare rate between 10% and 60% at the age of 2 and an average of 34.

2%.
In addition, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Australia and other countries have also introduced policies to encourage (foreign) grandparents to look after their children in order to eliminate parental pressure.

According to Tencent Education’s White Paper on Child Care Services for Children Aged 0-3, the enrollment rate of infants and children aged 0-3 in China in all types of childcare institutions is only 4.

.

1%, intergenerational care is very common.

  Fourth, strengthen the protection of women’s employment rights. The smaller the employment gap between men and women, the higher the growth rate.
OECD countries recognize the protection of women’s employment rights, such as the Swedish government-led public service cause to provide more jobs for women, and Germany, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore all provide training for post-natal women’s reemployment.

According to the World Bank, the female labor force participation rate (ages 15 and above) for OECD members from 1990 to 2017 was 47.

8% rose to 51.

At 3%, the gap between men and women’s labor force participation rate is from 26.

One can add 17.

2 averages.

Generally speaking, countries with smaller employment gaps between men and women mean that women’s employment rights are better protected and growth rates increase.

For example, in 2014, the gap between the male and female employment rates in Sweden was only 3.
.

4 averages, totaling nourishment 1.

88; and the gender gap in Italy is 18.

Two averages, the total birth rate is only 1.

37.
The median income gap between men and women in OECD countries from 2006 to 2016 was 15.

6% dropped to 13.

5%.

The female labor force participation rate in China from 1990 to 2017 was 73.

2% returns 61.

5%, the labor participation rate gap from 11.

Six were expanded to 14.

6 averages.

  3.2 France: Actively promote the balance between family and work, and the total productivity is close to 2 France started encouraging harvest long before World War II, and achieved work and family through the improvement of a detailed subsidy system, gradual child care services and the creation of family-friendly business alternativesBalance, the total birth rate in 2016 reached 1.

96.
At the beginning of the 18th century, France was the country with the largest population in Europe. However, due to the continuous decline in the birth rate, the population of France increased slightly from 38.48 million to 39.23 million in 1901-1911, replacing Europe’s fifth.

As early as 1920, France introduced the “Anti-Abortion Law” to curb the decline in the birth rate of the population.

The “Family Code” enacted by France in 1939 was the source of French family policy.

Since then, France has continuously introduced and perfected encouraging and cultivating policies and has achieved results.

According to the World Bank, France’s Sum of Births was reorganized in 1960. 2

85, dropped to 2 in 1975.

09, lower than the replacement level, and further dropped to 1 in 1994.

73, the lowest in history, but rebounded to 1 in 2016.

96.
  France has taken the following measures: 1) Guaranteed holidays, set up 16 weeks of maternity leave, 11 days of paternity leave for men and 1 year of shared parental leave for couples.

According to the French government’s official website, France currently has 16 weeks of maternity leave, including 6 weeks of prenatal leave and 10 weeks of postnatal leave.
Employers do not provide wages during maternity leave, but the French Social Insurance Agency (CPAM) provides a subsidy of 9-86 euros / day.

The specific amount determines the salary of the leaver.

In France, there is 11 days of paternity leave for men, during which the same daily allowance can be granted.

France also has a one-year parental leave that couples can share.

Renewal leave only needs to be applied to the employer one month in advance, and the employer cannot object.

Employers do not pay wages during parental leave, and the French Family Assistance Agency (CAF) provides a subsidy of  396 / month.
  2) In 2013, household welfare expenditure in France accounted for 3% of GDP.

7%, ranking third among OECD countries.

At present, France has established a relatively complete and slightly subsidized system, covering multiple alternatives such as child birth, parenting, childcare, compensation for parents’ loss of income, and the supplementary amount depends on the family income and the number of children.

According to OECD data, the share of French household welfare expenditures in GDP was 3 in 2013.

At 7%, it ranks third among OECD countries, behind the United Kingdom and Denmark, and is higher than the OCED average of 2.

4%.

  3) A perfect child care service system. In 2014, the enrollment rate for children aged 0-2 in France reached 51.

9%, much higher than the OECD level.

France has a complete child care service system, including: collective reception agencies such as collective nurseries, family reception agencies such as kindergarten assistants; home care such as babysitters, and “entertainment receptionists”.

Either way, the French Family Allowance Fund (CAF) will provide funding. If the nanny is to take care of the child at home, the employer only needs to pay 15%.

According to OECD data, in 2014, France’s 0-2 year old entrusted reorganization51.

9%, ranking eighth among all OECD countries, above the OECD average of 34.

4%.

  4) Large enterprises join hands to create a family-friendly enterprise, and the gap between men and women in France is less than 10%.

In 2012, about 400 large companies in France signed the “Articles of Association of Parents and Employees of the Company”, which covers about 3 million employees, accounting for about 10% of the labor force, and has set flexible working hours and minimum working hours for employees; companies that oppose workaholic natureCulture, rejecting long-term work and overtime; promoting the promotion of female employees; promoting fathers to use full-paid paternity leave, etc.

According to the World Bank, women’s labor participation in France in 201750.

6%, the gap between male and female labor force participation rate is only 9.
.

6 averages, less than 17 of the OECD average.

22 averages.

According to OECD data, the median income difference between men and women in France in 2016 was only 9.

9%, which is less than 13.
.

5%.

  5) Immigrants account for about 9%, of which 45% are from Africa, and have also played a role in increasing the indigenous rate in France.

According to the French Bureau of Statistics, there were 6.2 million immigrants in France in 2015, accounting for 5% of the total population from 1946 to 19757.

4% rose to 9 in 2015.

3%.

Of which 44.

6% of immigrants are from Africa, 35.

4% are from Europe.

The high birth rate of North African immigrants has played a significant role in the recovery of the French indigenous population.

In addition, the immigration of France has mainly developed from men to women. From 1968 to 2015, the proportion of female immigrants increased from 44% to 51%.

  3.3 Japan: Traditional gender division of labor intensifies work and family conflicts, and the total growth rate stays at 1.

Around 4, the population growth rate is severe. Japan has encouraged fertility since the 1990s, but the total reproduction rate remained at 1 in 2016.

4, the low birth rate caused the Japanese population to peak in 2008, 2100 will be 53% lower than before, and the ageing degree is the highest in the world.

Japan’s total birth rate was around 3 in 1950 and continued to fall to 2 in 1974.

05, 2005 is 1.

26, the lowest in history, only rose to 1 in 2016.

44, has not returned to the ideal level.

Against the background of a long-term low birth rate, Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 1.
28 billion.

According to forecasts in the Japanese Statistical Yearbook, the Japanese population will replace 1 by 2050.

2.0 billion, a decrease of about 20% than expected, and by 2100, the population of Japan will fall by less than 60 million, a 53% decrease from the previous.

In addition, Japan is the country with the most severe aging and aging in the world, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and over from 1950 to 2017 from 4.

9% quickly increased to 27.

7%, of which population aged 80 years and over accounted for 0.

4% increased to 7.

0%; It is estimated that the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Japan will reach 37 in 2050 and 2100 respectively.

7%, 38.

3%.

  1) After the Second World War, Japan’s family policy experienced three stages of population control, population stabilization, and encouragement of reproduction.

1948-1970 was a period of controlling population growth.

From 1947 to 1949, Japan experienced its first baby boom, with a total of 8.02 million births in three years, with a birth rate of 26 in 1945.

4 ‰ rose sharply to 32 in 1949.

9‰.

Japan began to study how to curb population growth. In 1948, the Japanese government introduced the “Superlative Protection Law” to implement fewer births and better education, and relaxed restrictions on abortion. In 1949, the Japanese House of Representatives decided to improve and expand the “family plan” and distribute free contraceptives and contraceptives.
1971-1989 was a period of stable population size.

From 1971 to 1973, the second baby boom appeared in Japan.

In 1974, Japan ‘s total population growth rate was below the replacement level for the first time. In 1974, Japan ‘s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare made the static population a new strategic goal for population development.

  Fertility has been encouraged since 1990, and the total reproduction rate replaced 1 in 1990.

57. Japanese society was made aware of the low fertility rate and began to encourage growth, covering vacations, economic subsidies, and trusteeship.

In terms of vacations, Japan has set up 14-week maternity leave, October parental leave, and 8-week male parental leave.

According to the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japanese women can currently enjoy maternity leave 6 weeks before and 8 weeks after giving birth; the maternity leave can replace the production limit before the leave; Japanese women can take 10 months of childcare leave before the child is 1; The allowances actually paid during parental leave can reach up to 80% of the wages paid before the leave.

In addition, Japanese men also have 8-week parental leave. If they take parental leave during maternity leave, they can apply for another 8-week parental leave before the child is 1 year and 2 months old.

  In terms of economic subsidies, women born in Japan can supplement a one-time temporary temporary payment of 420,000 yen and a child subsidy (under 12 years) of about 10,000 yen per month.

Japanese women can receive a one-time breeding temporary payment of 420,000 yen for child production and subsidize child rearing instead of root child.

Within the income limit, a family raising a child under the age of three receives a child subsidy of 15,000 yen per month; a family raising a child aged 3 to elementary school graduates can earn 10,000 yen per month for up to 2 children,3 children and over 15,000 yen per month, etc.

  In terms of childcare, Japan has expanded childcare services through three “angel plans” and has formulated a “zero combat for children out of school” plan.

Japan implemented the “Angel Plan” in 1994, implemented the “New Angel Plan” in 1999, and implemented the third phase of the “Angel Plan” in 2004, focusing on expanding childcare services.

In 2001, the Japanese government formulated the “Zero Combat for Children on Vacation” plan, and the “Zero Combat for New Children” plan was formulated in 2008. It will inevitably need to enter a nursery, but due to lack of facilities and manpower, the “suspended children” can only wait in line at home.”Downgraded to zero.

  In terms of improving the employment environment, Japan has created a better business environment for childcare families.

In 1999, Japan formulated the “Basic Policy for the Reduction of Childhood”, 2003 formulated the “Basic Law for the Reduction of Socialization in the Childless Society”, and in 2004 formulated the “Outline for the Reduction of Socialization in the Childless Society”, which improved the employment environment and social medical care, education environment, and lifeEnvironment to promote fertility.
If employees have children under 3 years of age, they can apply to the company to extend their working hours to 6 hours a day; if employees have preschool children, they must not work overtime for more than 24 hours a month.

  2) Japan has not made significant progress in encouraging fertility policy. One is that it missed the best time to adjust the policy, but adjusted it earlier and in time.

Japan missed the best period to adjust fertility policy. The total growth rate fell below the replacement level in 1974, but breeding was not encouraged until 1990. The French total growth rate fell below the replacement level in 1975, but earlyBreeding was encouraged in 1939.

  The second is that Japan is weak in encouraging cultivation, and the proportion of family welfare expenditure is only 1.
.

5%, the last in the ranking of OECD countries.

According to the National Institute of Social Security and Population Studies, Japan ‘s expenditure on households as a percentage of GDP from 1980 to 2014 only went from zero.

47% rose to 1.

34%.
According to OECD data, household welfare expenditure in Japan accounted for only 1% of GDP in 2013.

49%, below the OECD average of 2.

43%, the last in the ranking of OECD countries.

In terms of childcare, according to OECD data, in 2013 Japan’s 0-2 year-old childcare rate was only 30.

6%, lower than the OECD28 average of 34.

4%, and well below the 51 in France.

9% and 46 in Sweden.

9%.

  Thirdly, the gender division of labor in Japan is “outside male, inside female”, and gender discrimination in the workplace is becoming more and more serious. Japanese women give up marriage and childbirth. The lifetime unmarried rate for women over 50 years old from 1990 to 2015 was 4.

3% surged to 14.

6%.

Unlike Finland, Sweden, and other countries that socialize some childcare and old-age care and are undertaken by the state, Japan ‘s childcare and old-age care responsibilities are mostly borne by domestic women. The idea of positioning women as full-time housewives still exists.The idea of “inside the Lord” is universal.

According to the World Bank, the female labor force participation rate in Japan reached 50 in 2017.

5%, lower than the OECD average of 51.

3%; In 2017, the gap between male and female labor force participation rates reached 20.

1 average, higher than the OECD average of 17.

2 averages.

According to the OECD, Japan’s gender gap in employment was 17 in 2014.

Nine averages, higher than the OECD average of 11.

8 digits; The median income gap between men and women among full-time employees in Japan in 2016 was 24.

6%, higher than OECD countries13.

5% average.

More and more Japanese women choose to (temporarily) abandon their families and enter the workplace.

According to the National Institute of Social Security and Population Studies, the lifetime unmarried rates for men in 1990, 2010, and 2015 were 5, respectively.

6%, 20.

4%, 23.

4% and 4 for women.

3%, 10.

6%, 14.

6%.

Japanese society has developed a concept of unwillingness to marry and be born, and it is difficult to return.
  4Policy recommendations: Fully liberalize and encourage new students immediately.

The Malthus’s “Population” in 1798, or the “Limit of Growth” of the Roman Club in the 1970s, underestimated the role of technological progress and the deterioration of production relations in improving development, and overestimated the trend of population growth.Seeking development results.

In the long run, technological progress and changes in production relations will bring huge development and upgrading, and gradually realize the coordination of population and development.

For China, if there is no strict family planning policy, the growth rate will gradually decline and population growth may be possible, but the demographic dividend will gradually come to an end and it will not cause such a complex and serious demographic structure problem.

  Population is an important support and symbol of a country’s national strength.
From the perspective of Chinese history, population growth is often an important symbol of the prosperous age. The prosperous times of the Kaiyuan era and the Kanggan prosperous era are all peaks in population.

From an international point of view, India is considered by many to have huge development potential. It is nothing but its huge population size and very young population structure.

The median age of the Indian population in 2015 was only 26.

7 years old, while China and the United States are 37.
0, 37.

6 years old.

By 2050, the median age of the Chinese population will reach 50, compared with 42 in the United States and India.

3, 37.

At the age of 5, can China withstand such a demographic structure to achieve national rejuvenation?

Of course, the quality of the population is also very important. Through the improvement of education, the population quality dividend will partially replace the effect of the disappearance of the population quantity dividend.

  People are the basic elements and driving force for development, and all economic and social development is for people.
The current rapid development of artificial intelligence has caused some people to discuss whether China still needs to liberalize cultivation.

There are three aspects to pay attention to: First, aging, “leftover men”, and the problem of demographic development, such as lost families, cannot be solved or difficult to solve by artificial intelligence.

Second, there are too many jobs in the economy and society that require emotional communication. I am afraid that artificial intelligence cannot replace them.

Third, even if artificial intelligence can completely replace human labor, then people can do other things that are more conducive to achieving comprehensive development and complete happiness.

According to the 2018 PwC report, “The Net Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Related Technologies on Employment in China”, artificial intelligence and related technologies will replace about 26% of China’s existing jobs in the next 20 years, but it canReal income levels create a large number of new jobs, with a net impact on China’s employment by creating a net increase of approximately 12%.

From the perspective of human development history, every technological advance will save labor force in traditional industries, but it has also created the demand for labor in the new economy and new industries.

  4.

2 The birth should be released immediately and fully, and the birth right should be returned to the family. The birth should be fully released. The right to give birth should be given back to the family, and the number of children should be determined by each family.

“Immediately” is because the population growth rate is urgent, and is currently in the third wave of the baby boomer population.

The mortality rate of the third round of baby boomers was 1987. The mid- to late-born population was still before the age of 35, and its main birth age, especially those born after 1990, was still at the best age of 25-29.

Once you miss the third round of baby boomers, and you want to increase the birth population in the future, you will get half the results with half the effort.

In addition, it should be fully liberalized, sooner rather than later, as soon as possible.

  Fully let go of birth. People who did n’t want to have a baby will still not have a baby, but some people who want to have three children can have a baby. Do n’t worry about some people, and some regions will cause multiple births and a population explosion.

This fear was originally predicted that the birth rate would increase dramatically after the “two-child” policy was implemented, but this was not the case.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total birth rate of rural China in 2010 and 2015 was 1, respectively.

44、1.

27, of which the total birth rate of one child, two children, three children and above in 2015 were 0.

61, 0.

53, 0.

13.
This means that the rural residents’ business plan is not strong, and 60% of them are willing to have two children, let alone three children.

  4.3 Speed up the development of a support system, and vigorously encourage cultivation and growth. It is family affairs from a micro perspective and national affairs from a macro perspective.

Due to the poor effect of the comprehensive two-child policy, it is expected that there will be no significant change in the overall release of growth expectations. It is necessary to accelerate the development of a support system for accumulation, vigorously create a friendly social environment, and lift family (re) cultivation.The worries of the future make more people want to have children, dare to have children and raise their children.
  The first is to implement differentiated individual tax deductions and economic subsidy policies, covering from pregnancy health care to the age of 18 or the end of academic education.
Explore the establishment of a comprehensive encouragement system from pregnancy health care to childbirth to 18 years of age or the end of academic education, including health care subsidies during pregnancy, childbirth grants for inpatients, childcare allowances, education allowances, family tax credits, and non-conforming taxStandard low-income people are subject to direct economic subsidies.

Moreover, localities can be further differentiated based on national policies based on actual conditions.

  The second is to increase the supply of childcare services and vigorously increase the 0-3 year-old enrollment rate from the current 4% to 40%, which can replace the generational care recovery.

Encourage and support employers and social forces to set up infant and child care services, and form a full-time, half-day, timed and temporary care service network.

At the same time, allowances are provided to (foreign) parents for intergenerational care, so as to increase the enthusiasm of intergenerational care for ancestors and avoid the pressure of parental care.

  The third is to further improve the protection of women’s employment rights, gradually implement reasonable incentives for enterprises, and accelerate the development of a reasonable and effective sharing mechanism between the state, enterprises, and families to accumulate costs.

Further, we will gradually advance the system of corrective production leave, breastfeeding leave, etc., properly address the extension of reproductive leave, male paternity leave, etc., and conduct economic or administrative intervention in units that harm women’s employment rights.

At the same time, according to the size of the female employees in the unit and the annual growth situation, a certain degree of discount reduction is implemented to reduce the cultivation costs borne by the enterprise.
Growth insurance and employee medical insurance began to be merged in 2017. It is expected to expand nationwide, which will help expand insurance coverage and improve convenience.

  The fourth is to strengthen the protection of equal rights for non-married people.

Although illegitimate births are discouraged, non-marital women and their children still need to be given all equal rights, especially in terms of settlement and admission, without discrimination.

  Fifth, increase education and medical expenses, maintain long-term stability of housing prices, and reduce direct costs of support.

Increase pre-university education investment, vigorously increase the supply of public kindergartens, extend nine-year compulsory education to twelve years, and carry out educational reforms to effectively eliminate the phenomenon of “homework becoming parental work.”

Increase medical expenses, promote reform of the medical and health system, and effectively reduce medical expenses.

Adhere to the “no housing, no speculation” positioning, establish a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, improve the housing market system and housing security system, so that all people live in places.

Suning Tesco (002024): High base in the early stage drags down performance growth, small stores have completed the table and can expect flexibility

Suning Tesco (002024): High base in the early stage drags down performance growth, small stores have completed the table and can expect flexibility
The event company released a performance report: 2019H1 company achieved revenue of 1346.1.8 billion, an annual increase of 21.63%; net profit attributable to mother 21.39 trillion, a reduction of 64 a year.37%. A brief comment on the 2019H1 performance was distorted by the high base of the sale of Ali’s equity in the previous period and the impact of the small store’s performance.63% to 1346.1.8 billion, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 64.37% to 21.3.9 billion; after decomposition, the company’s single-quarter revenue in Q2 2019 increased by 18.14% to 723.7.7 billion, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 66% to 20.03 billion.The main reason for the fluctuation of the company’s performance was due to the previous sale of Ali’s equity and the impact of the 19H1 store’s statement. The overall performance was in line with expectations.In 2018H1, the company sold Ali shares to increase its net profit by US $ 5.6 billion. After excluding the impact of the sale of Ali shares, net profit in 18H1 was about 4 billion; in 2019H1, the small store profit (affecting the company’s net profit of about 2 billion) and the statement profit (about34.After the impact of 2.8 billion), the company’s net profit attributable to its parent was approximately 800 million. The growth rate of GMV has improved, and the growth rate of offline transaction volume in Q2 has bucked the trend and has increased by 21% in 2019.8% to 1842.1.5 billion, the previous growth rate 22.At 75 pct, the GMV of single Q2 companies has grown by more than 18.78% to 972.89 billion, the starting point of growth is relatively 24.3 pct.H1’s online platform GMV is growing by 26 each year.98% to 1121.500 million, of which self-operated GMV increased by 25.6% to 796.9.5 billion (self-operated Q1 / Q2 growth rates were 40.87% / 14.35%, Q2 self-operated GMV growth rate exceeded expectations), online open platform GMV increased by 30.5% to 324.5.5 billion; H1’s offline GMV increased by 14.54% to 1842.1.5 billion, single G2 offline GMV increased by 17.7% to 392.6.3 billion, Q2 offline GMV growth increased ahead of schedule3.16 pct, up 6 from the previous month.73 pct, benefiting from factors such as the consolidation of Wanda Department Store, the growth of offline transaction volume has increased against the trend. The offline multi-level retail network layout was further improved, and the same store growth rate was affected by the general environment to improve the acceptance of Suning Tesco Plaza: Q2 completed the consolidation of 37 stores of Wanda Department Store. Until the end of June, the company operated 54 Suning Tesco Plaza with reservesOne project; Suning stores: Q2 Suning stores (including Diya Tiantian) opened 695 stores, closed 425 stores, Suning stores had a breakthrough in adjustment, until the end of June, Suning shops (including Diya Tiantian) totaled 5,368,The Suning shop has completed its presentation. In the future, it will continue to cultivate the community market and create synergies with the company.By the end of June, the number of retail cloud / 3C home living stores / Red Kids / Su Xiansheng stores were 5108/2110/172/9 stores respectively. The retail cloud stores continued to promote the transformation of Suning Tesco direct sales to cloud franchise stores, accelerating the low-levelSink the market. Affected by the weak external market environment, the consumer market and home appliance consumption continued to be under pressure, and the company’s home appliance 3C home lifestyle specialty store H1 same-store sales fell 566%, same-store sales of retail cloud-operated stores decreased by 6 year-on-year.27%; the operation of maternity and baby stores for red children is gradually mature, and H1 same-store growth is 16.84%, a significant improvement. The online social matrix was initially formed, and financial, logistics, and supply chain resources were further integrated. Suning’s push-to-purchase, Suning push, Su Xiaotuan and other operating products initially formed a social operating matrix. Until the end of June, the number of registered members of the company’s retail system.4.2 billion, an annual increase of 24%.The 武汉夜生活网 supply chain, logistics, and financial service resources are further integrated to empower emerging channels such as communities, communities, and social e-commerce.As of the end of June, Suning Logistics and Tiantian Express had a total area of 10.9 million square meters of warehousing and related supporting facilities, 24,615 express delivery outlets, and a logistics network covering 351 prefecture-level cities and 2864 district cities across the country.100%, the supply chain finance business investment amount is +41 per year.3%, the number of transactions for paying users + 31% per year. By acquiring 80% of Carrefour China, the layout of the FMCG category is further improved. The acquisition of 80% of Carrefour China ‘s shares will be of great significance to the development of the company ‘s FMCG category, access to offline high-quality store resources, and the improvement of retail capacity in all scenarios.At the same time, it can reduce the company’s procurement and logistics costs, and improve market competitiveness and profitability. Investment suggestion: 2019H1 company’s home appliance sales market market share is 22.4%, ranking first, the company’s home appliance retail hematopoietic capacity accumulation; online business maintained rapid growth, the acquisition of Wanda Department Store, Carrefour China, Suning will form a comprehensive coverage of major retail channels, including online self-employed, online platform, offlineSpecialized stores, department stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and omni-channel smart retail ecosystems have been fully formed, and there is huge room for future synergies to play. At present, the outlets have completed the export schedule, and the short-term performance pressure has been greatly reduced. In the second half of the year, Suning Finance successfully completed the export schedule to further increase profits, and at the same time, the 818 shopping festival gradually increased the company’s GMV growth rate.Regardless of the impact of the acquisition of Carrefour for the time being, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be $ 16.5 billion and $ 4 billion in 2019-2020, corresponding to PE of 6,25 times, and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk factors: intensified competition in the industry; weaker-than-expected development of new formats; continued weakness in the consumer environment

How does Chinese medicine see a hand diagnosis

How does Chinese medicine see a hand diagnosis

When there is a problem with organs in our body, it will be directly reflected on the hands, such as dry hands, hot hands, cold hands, etc., which implies that the body has a problem.

  How does TCM see a hand diagnosis?

  1. Generally cold girls are prone to cold hands and feet, and their bodies are afraid of cold. At the same time, it will also be accompanied by gastrointestinal discomfort, weak waist and knees, and weakness in the whole body.Smooth and reduces cold resistance.

If you want to improve this situation, you should eat more foods that warm the spleen and yang, such as glutinous rice, longan, red dates, pork belly, lamb, soak your feet with hot water every night before going to bed.Standing and sedentary.

  2. Hot hands and hot hands are accompanied by insomnia and dreams, dry eyes, dizziness, and upset. This is caused by blood deficiency, yin deficiency, or accumulation of food.

The palm of your hand caused by yin deficiency is hot. You should eat more nourishing foods, such as black sesame and pear. Do not eat warm foods. Cinnamon, pepper, longan, lychee, durian, eat less fried and other high content.Aunt Gao’s food guarantees adequate sleep and must not stay up late.

Hand fever caused by blood deficiency should pay more attention to nourishing qi and blood.

Fever caused by accumulation of palms should be mainly based on spleen and digestion.

  3. Sticky hands and sticky hands are accompanied by dry throat and fever all over the body. This is a manifestation of heart-kidney yin deficiency and fire. The patient should eat more nourishing food, and at the same time ensure adequate sleep. Use rice vinegar daily.Soak your hands with warm water.

  4, dry hands when qi and blood deficiency lead to insufficient skin nutrients, the function of sebaceous glands and sweat glands will also be affected to a certain extent, the skin is easy to dry, especially in autumn, so that the blood circulation in the peripheral parts of the body is affected.Insufficient blood and weakened resistance are more prone to cracking and drying.

Such patients must not eat cold food, pay more attention to nourishing qi and nourishing blood, you can choose angelica soup or longan red jujube soup.

In addition, you must take good care of the skin. Do not wash your hands repeatedly or use soap excessively. After washing your hands, apply hand cream in time.

  It is warmly reminded that the relationship between hands and health is very close, there will be many acupoints on the hands, and massaging different parts of the hands will have certain benefits to the body.

Massaging the palms of the hands can promote blood circulation to the heart and lungs, and can prevent arteriosclerosis. Massaging the thumb can excite nerve function, maintain the acid-base balance in the body, and effectively treat hypertension. Rubbing the index finger can regulate the human digestive system.It can also strengthen the spleen and stomach; massage the middle finger can prevent the occurrence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and treat hypertension.

Seven Mistakes That Everyday Whitening Skin Is Easy To Enter

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Seven Mistakes That Everyday Whitening Skin Is Easy To Enter

Mistake area one: Only use whitening products in spring and summer a year. The efficacy of whitening products is short-lived. You should use whitening products in all seasons, and pay attention to sun protection.

  Misunderstanding 2: facial cleanser, toner can whiten facial cleanser, the main role of toner is to clean the skin, even if whitening is added successfully, its efficacy is extremely limited.

  Misunderstanding 3: The skin is very white, and no whitening products are needed. Whitening skin is different from “bleaching” the skin. The role of whitening and maintenance is mainly to help the skin prevent melanin production and make the skin brighter.

  Misunderstanding 4: Fantasy becomes Snow White overnight. Whitening skin can’t transform your fair skin overnight. Whitening requires a gradual process.

  Misunderstanding 5: Whitening products can eliminate the spots on both ends. Whitening skin care products cannot remove the spots on the shells. They can only disperse the melanin evenly or resist the production of some melanin.

  Misunderstanding 6: Excessive pursuit of whitening regardless of sun protection. Most melanin production is caused by ultraviolet rays. We should pay attention to sun protection and moisturization.

Prescribe the right medicine to whiten the skin.

  Misunderstanding 7: Regardless of whether or not the product ingredients are absorbed by some people, they blindly pursue whitening, which leads to abuse of whitening products, but it can easily cause destructive skin damage.

Stuck by a fishbone, and eat vinegar?

wrong!

Stuck by a fishbone, and eat vinegar?
wrong!

Too many people have been caught by fishbone, and the older generation of people always give us various tricks, such as swallowing rice balls, vinegar, and sour plums, but are these methods really reliable
  The two major misunderstandings of handling fish sticks are the first: vinegar.

Absolutely, fish bones are composed of organic substances such as proteins and inorganic substances such as calcium salts. Acetic acid in vinegar can dissolve the calcium salts in them and make the bones soft.

  However, the swallowed fish bone is a relatively complete and dense structure, and it takes some time to dissolve it with acetic acid.

Even if the fishbone is completely soaked in vinegar, it can take months or even a year.

Therefore, the short-term “washing” of vinegar in the esophagus cannot penetrate the effect of softening fish bones.

  Second: swallow buns, rice balls.

After a lot of friends got stuck in fishbone, they felt like eating a few bites.

In fact, this is very dangerous.

  Most fishbone stabs in the opposite direction to swallowed buns and rice balls. When swallowing hard buns, the esophagus wall is easily stabbed by fishbone, scratching the esophageal mucosa, and even bleeding and perforation.

  First, if you find yourself stuck in a fishbone, stop eating and swallowing immediately, try to spit out the food in your mouth, and rinse your mouth with food residue.

  Then ask your family and friends to help explore the pharynx.

During the process, you can make an “a” sound, or use a clean spoon to press the tongue downward. When the brightness is not enough, you can use a flashlight to illuminate.

If fishbone is found, remove it with tweezers in the opposite direction of the fishbone.

  If you find the location of the fishbone, you can calm down and relax. Try drinking a few sips of water. The smaller fishbone will be taken away by the water, but you must not swallow rice balls, steamed bread and other hard food.

  If the effect is still not obvious, or the pain is very serious, you need to seek medical treatment immediately and take professional measures to remove the fishbone!

  Finally, I remind you once again to be careful when eating fish, especially children and older people to pay more attention.

Once the fishbone is stuck, take corrective measures, and seek medical attention in a serious situation!

Sweet potatoes for eczema poisonous stings

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Sweet potatoes for eczema poisonous stings

Sweet potatoes are sweet and flat, non-toxic. “Compendium of Materia Medica” refers to sweet potatoes as “tonicity, qi, spleen and stomach, and kidney yin.

Common sweet potatoes are commonly used in folks to treat eczema, poisonous stings, night blindness, sores, and constipation.

  30 grams of sweet and sweet potato vines with acute and chronic inflammation (60-90 grams of fresh vines) and 30 grams of spicy steamed buns (60 grams of fresh products).

Wash together, add water to decoction, once a day.

  Constipation ① 500 grams of sweet potato leaves, 15 grams of peanut oil, and an appropriate amount of salt.

Sweet potato leaves are cooked with peanut oil and salt. When eaten as a vegetable, constipation is usually taken once a day, and habitual constipation is taken twice a day.

Do not eat hot products such as chili, wine, and tea, coffee, etc. while taking this medicine.

  ② 1 sweet potato (cut into pieces), 3 shiitake mushrooms (shred), 20 parsley.

Stir in peanut oil, season with salt and MSG.

This recipe is delicious and effective. Take it before meals in the morning for 5 days.

  250 grams of raw sweet potatoes, washed and chopped, mashed like mud, externally applied to the affected area, replaced once in the morning and evening.

There are hemostatic, analgesic, antiseptic, and swelling effects.

Indications for ulcers, pain, bleeding.

  1 fetal disturbed sweet potato, 10 red dates, 1 spoon sugar.

Wash and cut the sweet potatoes, cook with red dates, season with sugar.

Can invigorate and sterilize.

  Eczema fresh sweet potato with a knife, washed and chopped, smashed together with a small amount of salt, decoction to take the liquid, wash the affected area while warm, and then spread the affected area with talcum powder or pine pollen.

Indications of scrotal eczema.

  Herpes zoster 50 grams of fresh sweet potato leaves, borneol itself.

Grind it together, mash it like mud, and apply it to the affected area.

  Night blindness sweet potato young leaves (the sweet potato with red and yellow seeds is more effective) 60-90 g, sheep liver 120 g.

Wash and cut together, add water to cook, and even take 2-3 times to see results.

  250 grams of sweet potato, 12 grams of Changshan.

Wash together, cook with water, remove Changshan, drink soup and eat sweet potatoes before leukemia, pregnant women and those who are physically weak should not take it.

It can cure vivax and malaria.

Spring solar terms on the tip of the tongue

“Spring” solar terms on the tip of the tongue

Chunchun Lichun eats spring rolls, and the important custom of Lichun is “biting spring”.

Bite spring is a good blessing for people to think about spring in the year.

Folklore eats the spring rolls and the various vegetables in them, which will make the seedlings flourish, and the six animals will grow stronger. Some areas think that eating the celery and the spring rolls of the leek make people more diligent and life longer.(leek).

Amaranth: leaves, flower buds and flowers are used for vegetable consumption; seeds can be used as medicine, with kidney, stomach, refreshing, antiperspirant and other effects.

In Chinese medicine, some people call it a leek.

The dragon mustard cake rain eats the dragon mustache cake. The last few days in the rainy season are the folks said, “February 2, the dragon looks up”, people eat the dragon mustard cake to miss the big drought, because of the ben farmer’s rain, they were punished under the mountain.Dragon.

驴 驴 蛰 蛰 蛰 蛰 蛰 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 大 大

Glutinous rice: sweet, warm, into the spleen, stomach, lung; with Buzhong Yiqi, spleen and stomach, stop the effect of sweat.

The general population can eat.

Glutinous rice food should be eaten after heating; it should be cooked in thin porridge, even nutritious and nourishing, and easy to digest and absorb, nourish the stomach.

Spring spring equinox eats spring vegetables, spring season, many places have the custom of eating spring vegetables. For spring vegetables, the more common saying is that it is wild leeks, and some people think that it refers to various seasonal vegetables that can be eaten.

This coincides with the concept of “Yellow Emperor” in the “Yellow Emperor’s Internal Classic”.

Spring vegetables: It has the effect of benefiting the five internal organs, passing the meridians, clearing the stomach heat, clearing heat and diuresis; it is used for urinary adverse, urine, and milk.

The Youth League Qingming eats the Qing Youth League. During the Qingming Festival, Jiangnan has the custom of eating green groups.

The Qingtuan is a kind of wild plant called “staple straw” which is smashed and squeezed out of the juice. Then it is made by mixing the juice with the water-milled pure glutinous rice flour which has been dried.

The fragrant tea in the fragrant valley is fragrant, and before and after the rain, the spring tea begins to be harvested.

The so-called “Yangchun March trial new tea”, while the valley rain is also just the time when the camphor is listed. At this time, the fragrant scent is fragrant and refreshing, and the nutritional value is high, so there is a saying that “the fragrant scent is tender and silky before the rain”.

Toona: The axillary bud is rich in nutrients and has a therapeutic effect. It treats external winds, rheumatism, stomach pain, dysentery and so on.